Summer 2014
is now emerging as an El Niño summer. The climate prediction center has placed the
East Coast, Southeast, and West in an area of very hot weather. How hot would
it get? Temperatures heading into an El Niño summer would mean 50% more 90+
degree days in places like Boston, Providence, New York City, Philadelphia,
Baltimore, and Washington. High humidity will accompany the heat, with at least
25 days exceeding 100 degrees with the afternoon heat index.
This would also
mean bad news for West Coast's wildfire season and a continuation of the
current drought in California. Relief for CA wouldn't come until
December-February, with Southern CA, Southwest, and Southern Rockies getting
more relief in the winter vs. Northern California.
The pre-El
Niño months of May and early June should definitely see a sign of warmer-than-normal
temps in the East and Southeast and West, and the core of summer will bring
once we get into the core of summer we'll see an El Niño roaster for the East
Coast and South. The confidence is trending up with the forecast, and the
latest IPC computer modeling shows a 66% chance of an El Niño this winter.
Models can
overplay the warming of the oceans due to climate change and the predicted El
Niño could be masked like the one in 2012; however, the law of averages shows
it's time for the seven year El Niño itch.
Called a
Kelvin Wave, an expanding pool of water now 4-6c above normal on the upper
surface water of the Pacific Ocean which gets bigger and bigger. Some experts
say it's may rival the Kelvin Wave of 1997-98 - the biggest El Niño of
all-time. Why is this wave important? As the surface waters start to warm,
the pool of water pushes East against the normal West flow of the Pacific. The
true indicator of whether we end up with a weak or moderate El Nino will be how
far this huge, warm pool of water travels over the Pacific Ocean the next 2-12
months. If the entire pool of toasty water moves Eastward to the West Coast of
Mexico and South America, you set the stage for a potential Pineapple Express.
Throw in a moisture-laden jet stream from Hawaii and strong El Nino, and the
entire southern half of the United States is wet this winter. On the contrary,
if the pool of water stays parked in the Central Pacific you get a weak to
moderate El Nino.
If you have summer plans for the beach, or plan on
visiting the local lake to cool off, you'll be glad you made that reservation.
The areas of the U.S. to see the biggest increase in the heat this summer will
be: California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri,
Georgia, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, DC, New Jersey, New York, and
Pennsylvania.
