The formation of an El Niño and cooler than normal sea-surface
temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region could suppress hurricane
formation and severity.
According to
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) forecast, there is
a 50-percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season and a 10-percent chance of an above-normal season. The
six-month hurricane season began June 1, and NOAA predicts a 70 percent
likelihood of eight to 13 named storms, those with winds of greater than 39
mph, and three to six of those could become hurricanes, achieving winds of 74
mph or higher, including one or two major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or
higher.
These numbers are near or below the
seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major
hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane
region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
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